The triumphant failure of the dialogue in Venezuela

I suppose that there must be somewhere a grand design to all of this. That we are asked to swallow hard because it is all for the best. That we should trust the Vatican envoy when he is in ecstasy about the progress made. Or is it that he is claiming victory as he is on his way to the airport to leave once and for all?

So let's look at what I think is a dismal result for two weeks of expectations. I never hoped for much but this is, well, words fail me. Let's see if I can try to explain it by doing a positive and negative spin to the 5 "points of agreement" reached today.


1- ---acordaron trabajar de manera conjunta para combatir toda forma de sabotaje, boicot o agresión---Agreement to work together against all forms of {economical} sabotage, boycott or agression---

Positive spin: the regime will accept to take measures to change the economic system so that production will improve and we will have less scarcity.

Negative spin: unfuckingbelievable!!!!  The opposition buys the regime's theses that the economic crisis is not its fault but that of external factors sabitaging. In short the opposition accepts to share the blame of a crisis that is entirely of the regime's making.  And I cannot even charitably conceded that it is in the aim to silence the propaganda of the regime: just you wait!

2- ...superación de la situación de desacato de la Asamblea Nacional... overcoming the situation of disobedience of the National Assembly...

Positive spin: the regime acknowledges that there is an impasse and that something must be done. For this it will allow a repeat election of Amazonas representatives and name the 2 electoral board members whose term expires in a few days (2 out of 5 in the CNE)

Negative spin: first the language puts the blame on the National Assembly for refusing to follow the clearly unconstitutional dictates of the high court TSJ. That it was about the Amazonas representatives is not an excuse: it is inadmissible that they have been suspended 11 months ago by the TSJ and that this one has not declared whether these elections were valid or needed to be repeated.  Nowhere in the world such a delay would be acceptable.

Equally detestable, the opposition accepts that the regime will get one of the two new CNE members to be named when according to the National Assembly composition it should get none. The CNE should now be 2 to 3 in favor of the opposition and the regime will now retain a 3 to 2, and thus control of the electoral machinery with all the advantages that this implies including the electoral abuses that have been amply described.

3- Everybody agrees on defending Venezuela's right on a chunk of Guyana called Essequibo.

Positive spin: WTF?

Negative spin: WTF!

4- A "live together in peace agreement" has been approved.

Positive spin: Let's all sing kumbaya

Negative spin: wasn't there a constitution and rule of law to take care of that? OR is it now that we will live in peace because the regime decides it so? Where is the evidence of that intention?

5- Mumble jumble about organization of future conversations

Positive spin: we are still talking, nobody slammed the door.

Negative spin, the regime gains a few more precious weeks


I mean, this is bad.

In addition we learn that the next general sit down is December 6 which is an insult to the opposition as it is the one year anniversary of its landslide 2/3 majority which has been reduced to paltry negotiations so it can still breathe some. To add insult to injury the psychopath of Jorge Rodriguez is acting like the big bad Woolf enticing those in the opposition to see the positive results and thus to depose arms and join the dialogue.

What conclusions can we take, minimally?

First, the recall election is now dead. Even if December 6 were to produce the miracle of such an election there is no time to collet signatures and run it by January 10. RIP opposition main claim.

Second, the MUD is playing into the hands of the regime to accelerate its division. How can anyone think that Voluntad Popular will sit down with such paltry results? VP could possibly be talked into postponing Leopoldo Lopez release but in exchange for something big, at least a Recall Election BEFORE January 10.  Amen of other players like Maria Corina Machado.

Third, unless the MUD come up with something convincing like, now, we can only conclude it has started to cave in the regime and offer it a transition to its own measure. Why? Who? The army? The Vatican? Obama? Generic Fear?

One thing is certain, any good will at the OAS or Mercosur is likely to fade fast, if you ask me. By the time the opposition decides to hit the streets again all will have forgotten and all the work will need to be done again.

Only the regime is gaining so far. Prove me wrong.